RUBIO RISING – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  It has been tough recently for Marco Rubio, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Florida, and a terrific guy.  First, he ran for the GOP nomination against incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist.

When Crist realized he was far behind, he bolted the Republican Party and entered the race as an independent, turning the general election into a three-way contest between Rubio, Crist, and a Dem candidate as yet unchosen.  Some recent surveys have shown Crist, the poster boy for political opportunists, ahead, in part because he's picked up some Democratic support.  Crist is milking that support by going into high grovel, even supporting the Ground Zero mosque in New York.  Apparently, that will win him some liberal votes in south Florida.

But the tide may be turning.  Results of a recent poll are encouraging:

TAMPA - A new poll shows Marco Rubio slipping ahead of Gov. Charlie Crist in the U.S. Senate race for the first time.

It also suggests that Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami is turning around his race against Palm Beach real estate investor Jeff Geene in the Democratic Senate primary, moving to a double-digit lead after trailing Greene by substantial margins for the last several weeks.

Meek is African-American, which plays a role here.

The poll also indicates that Crist, a no-party candidate, is heavily dependent on support from Democrats, and if Democratic voters move toward a nominee of their own party, Crist's support will erode.

Crist has long been unusually popular among Democratic voters -- black voters in particular -- for a lifelong Republican.

But the new poll results show he may have trouble hanging onto enough Democratic voters to make up for the loss of GOP support caused by his move away from the Republican Party.

The numbers:

• With Meek as the Democratic nominee, the poll shows Rubio, a Republican, leading a three-way race against Meek and Crist by a statistically significant margin -- Rubio 38 percent, Crist 33 percent, Meek 18 percent and 11 percent undecided.

• With Greene as the Democratic nominee, Crist remains in first place, but by a margin so narrow it's a statistical tie -- Crist 39 percent, Rubio 38 percent, Greene 12 percent and 11 percent undecided.

COMMENT:  With Meek as the Dem candidate, African-Americans will flood toward him.  If the whitish Greene gets the nod, blacks will give heavy support to Crist.

My hunch is that our guy Rubio will pull it out anyway.

August 16, 2010